Just 28% of Americans think the U.S. Is on the right track. And I want you to put that into perspective. Right. When does the average when the incumbent party loses the election? Look at that. It's just 25%. That looks a heck of a lot like that. 28%, right? That is not good news. [00:00:15] And the person you just heard from, of course, is CNN's Harry Enten breaking down what appears to be a pretty big problem for the Harris campaign, which is the electorate's clear displeasure with the direction that the country is headed in. Typically, the incumbent party suffers the consequences of that. [00:00:34] And as you know, the incumbent party is the Democratic Party, with Kamala Harris serving as the vice president. In fact, Enten went so far as to say that if Harris won with those numbers, it would be historically unprecedented. When the white House party wins, i.e. [00:00:52] Kamala Harris's party, the Democrats 42% on average, think that the country is on the right track. Can an incumbent party win with numbers like this? Yeah. So if we look historically speaking, right, and we say, okay, say the U.S. Is on the right track, the incumbent party, when they win today, [00:01:09] again, it's just 28%. Look throughout history, right, 96, 88, oh four, 1284 and all of these instances, in all these instances, far more than 28% thought that the country was on the right track. 39 was the lowest back in 1996. [00:01:25] We got upwards of 47% in 84. Of course, that was a blowout, right, for Ronald Reagan. So there is no historical precedent for the white House party winning another term in the white House when the country when just 28% of the country thinks that we're on the right track, [00:01:40] John, simply put, it would be historically unprecedented. Now, Harris might have a slight advantage in that she's not Joe Biden, she's not the president. But I don't know how much of an advantage that really is, to be honest with you, Jake. And, you know, I remember when I was, you know, getting my poli sci degree, [00:01:59] this was actually something that we learned in terms of American elections and American politics. We looked back at what tends to happen. And yeah, the electorate tends to retaliate against the party that's in charge if things aren't really going well in the country. [00:02:15] So I don't know how that's going to play out for Harris. But I am curious what you think about how she's handled her campaigning in recent weeks, because there's been a pivot and I'm not sure that pivot is working out for her. Yeah, I think she's going to lose a lead imminently [00:02:30] and then there's only a month left. So I'm super worried about that in this election. So I'm going to tell you why in a second. But that point he's making about is the country going in the right direction. This is one of the reasons why I was absolutely positive [00:02:47] that Biden was going to lose. He is the actual incumbent. There's no way to get any trick anyone into thinking he wasn't the incumbent and he wasn't responsible for the direction that we were going in. So his popularity and approval ratings were in the low 30s, totally unrecoverable, never happened in American history. [00:03:04] When a country is going to think that, people think that it's going in the wrong direction at this level. The incumbent has no chance of winning. And so that's why at the end, right before he dropped out, by the way, now they're trying to do revisionist history. Even now some of the Biden supporters are like oh he would be [00:03:20] where Kamala Harris is right now. He was down by eight. It's nationally. She's up by 5 to 7. It's a joke. They're insane people. So now okay, but Kamala Harris isn't Biden. And so that gives us a complicated situation here [00:03:36] where we have an incumbent administration but not an incumbent candidate. So. Well, then who wins? Well, I'll tell you, the person who frames it better wins. And in the beginning, Kamala Harris did a great job of framing it. And we told you that immediately. Somebody wrote in today saying, I can't keep up, guys. [00:03:52] Sometimes you're criticizing Democrats and sometimes you're saying they're doing well. Yeah, because it depends, doesn't it? Are they doing well or are they doing poorly. So we actually do the news here. We don't just say oh our side. So she's definitely going to win or he's definitely going to win. So and what was she doing? So right back then? [00:04:10] Tim Walz was a breath of fresh air. And it actually is partly affects this conversation. Populist, progressive economic positions that we're now going to look out for you guys on price gouging, on the housing prices and all these things that were populist economically [00:04:27] that the country loved. She starts surging in the polls, and she framed it as, aren't you sick of what we had in this race? Well, good news, there's a new candidate and you get to have a whole new, [00:04:43] you know, look at this thing and you've got a candidate that'll give you a change from this election. So perfect framing. And she I mean, guys, that the way she took off was not a given. She did a terrific job in taking off. No, the very beginning. [00:05:01] I mean, that excitement around her was very real. And the messaging that she put out in the very beginning of her campaign, I believe, was successful because she provided excitement as a new candidate. Of course, that's part of it. There was a little bit of a honeymoon period, but she came out by [00:05:20] naming Tim Walz as her running mate, like she was signaling that she was going to moderate certain elements of the left wing policy that is not so popular, but kind of focused on like the working class messaging that I like, [00:05:37] especially when she chose Tim Walz. But then she did like a big pivot away from that. And not only was it a big pivot away from that, she then started talking about how honored she was to get the endorsement of some of the worst, like war criminals [00:05:52] in the country like Dick Cheney. Why are you campaigning with neocons? I was thinking about this the other day. So she was campaigning in Wisconsin with Liz Cheney. And the idea is, well, if I campaign with a former Republican congresswoman, well, maybe she can convince some of the Republicans in the state to support me. [00:06:11] Right? That's the thinking. Except Liz Cheney lost reelection, and she lost reelection like the Republicans in Wisconsin. Don't love Liz Cheney. Like, I don't understand what the real benefit is of campaigning with them if they want to endorse her. There's nothing Kamala Harris can do about it, but it's something [00:06:29] entirely different to decide. Like, hey, I'm going to go out and campaign with the Cheneys. Yeah, so I want to pick up on that in a second, because so when she's framing herself as the change candidate, two things that helped a lot that we just discussed. One is, hey, I'm changing the race. The race was Trump versus Biden. [00:06:48] You hated that race. Now you got a whole new race and a whole new option. Beautifully framed. Hey, I picked Tim Walz. No one expected me to pick Tim Walz. Tim Walz is the most real looking out of all these guys. - The least plastic, least fake, the most. - Liked. The most liked. [00:07:03] And so and the fact that she picked a progressive who actually got some things done in Minnesota. People are shocked by that and they're like, oh, okay, change. She wasn't kidding. She meant change. Totally. Yeah, right. And she goes after price gouging. We know that everyone in the business community and all the donors hate that kind of talk. [00:07:20] We're like, okay, look at this real change. But when she goes back to sending out all of her surrogates, Mark Cuban and the others all over cable news going, no, no big business. Don't worry. She's even more pro corporations than Joe Biden was like, ooh, that's not change. [00:07:36] And then she goes and assures the military industrial complex, don't worry. Nothing has changed. I'm going to support Israel 100%. I'm bringing in the neocons like the Cheneys. Don't worry. No change. But guys, she's she's making the mistake of thinking she's only talking to the [00:07:52] donors because that's who she talks to. 24 over seven in the real world of the campaigning. Right. And all of her advisers, they're all donor obsessed. But the message you have for donors is the worst possible message to give to the American people, because they don't want any change. You know why? [00:08:08] They're already at the top, so they don't want anything to change. That's why Biden's number one promise behind the scenes was to the donors. Nothing will fundamentally change when you now that she's poured the I'm not going to change anything message out there. Now you're going to see her slipping in the polls and Trump leading. [00:08:25] And guys, we're telling you ahead of time. So we're the only show that does that. So you can check our credibility with what. It's almost like a scientific experiment. Were we right or were we not. You'll see it with your own eyes, saying that you're not the change candidate, [00:08:40] and that business and military interests can rest easy because nothing will change is a disastrous strategy. Turn around, turn around. I have a feeling that part of the reason why she isn't turning around, and that she the reason why she moved off of that more populist messaging, [00:08:59] is because she took a look at the base that is most supportive of her campaign, and that base is not the non-college educated working class. Take a look. White college grads have been this group that have been moving further [00:09:16] and further to the left. All right, this is the Democratic margin among white college grads. Look, Hillary Clinton won them by five points, then Joe Biden won by nine. Look at this margin that Kamala Harris is pulling up in the polls right now among white college grads. It's an 18 point margin, double the margin that Joe Biden had just four years ago. [00:09:35] I went back through the record books. This would be the largest win for a Democratic presidential candidate among white college grads in recorded history. How about all voters with a college degree? It's basically the same story. It's historically high support for a Democratic candidate. [00:09:50] You see, right now, Kamala Harris leads in the polls by 21 points. That's three points higher than Joe Biden did four years ago, at six points higher than Hillary Clinton did eight years ago. How many voters do have a college degree? Right. So this is the second part, the key nugget here, [00:10:06] an increasing share of the electorate. You know, you go back 44 years ago, just 21% of the electorate had a college degree. You go back 24 years ago 31%. You go back four years ago, you're up to 40%. This year it looks like a historically high proportion of the electorate, [00:10:21] 41% will have a college degree. Now, one could argue that the increase of college educated voters in the Democratic Party has to do with the efforts to cancel student loan debt. You know, that's a possibility. But the other thing is, you know, individuals who have graduated [00:10:39] from college are far more likely to be affluent, affluent. And so a lot of her messaging has, in my opinion, kind of shifted over to appealing toward more affluent Americans. So yes and no. So it's a little bit more complicated than that, because the very richest people [00:10:56] in the country disproportionately support Trump, because to them they think, no, Trump is exactly like us and they identify with him. Take everything. Leave nothing behind. Okay. And so whereas the upper middle class, the highly educated, they want the calmness [00:11:14] of the establishment, if I'm being honest. Okay. And so for a lot of their lives are going. Okay. And so they think I don't want too much change. And so the Republicans used to be the party of the establishment. Unfortunately, Democrats have now become a little bit more. [00:11:29] They both are. But the Democrats may be even a little bit more the party of the establishment. Now, to be fair to the college educated and, you know, obviously we went to college here, so we don't hate ourselves. Of course, I like college educated people. Right. And and one of the things that's driving them towards Kamala Harris [00:11:47] is that Donald Trump won't stop lying. And college educated people know those are not facts. Sorry. They're just not true. Right. And so it bothers people with an education when you make things up 24 over seven and they think this guy's kind of a madman, and it's hard to trust a guy like this. [00:12:05] That's not the interesting part. I think the interesting part is that the non-college educated that used to be in the Democratic Party have gone over to the Republican Party, and that one is not because, oh, they hate facts and they etc.. No, they realize the mainstream media is lying in a lot of ways. [00:12:20] It's it's more complicated than that. The reason they're going over there is because they think the establishment gives me nothing. Everything goes to the top. Nothing ever comes to the middle class. Nothing ever comes down to the great majority of American people. And so I'm tired of it. [00:12:36] So whoever looks more establishment, I'm going to vote against them. And I don't care who's on the other side. I'm voting against you guys. They're super clear about that whenever you ask. But the people in media, they're all college educated, so they [00:12:53] can't relate to those other voters. - That's very true. - Yeah. And literally in two different articles I read today, there were quotes from people going, I'm mystified. I can't figure this phenomenon out at all. Why are the non-college educated going in that direction? [00:13:10] Why do they like what Trump is saying? It's because they don't like you. You're like, but you. But they can't ever see that because it's about them. They're blinded by their bias. They can't fathom that the establishment is cheating in favor of certain classes of [00:13:27] people, that the donor money is affecting where our resources and our taxes go. That's the non-college educated people aren't wrong about that. They're right about that. That is the fundamental truth that they understand. And unfortunately, people in the upper brackets don't understand because it's [00:13:46] inconvenient for them to understand it. That's why they're blinding themselves to that fact. But if you blind yourself enough, you lose an election because you couldn't see reality. That's what happened in 2016, and I'm now very worried. That's the direction we're going right now. [00:14:01] Thanks for watching The Young Turks really appreciate it. Another way to show support is through YouTube memberships. You'll get to interact with us more. There's live chat emojis, badges. You've got emojis of me Anna John Jr. So those are super fun. But you also get playback of our exclusive member only shows [00:14:21] and specials right after they air. So all of that, all you got to do is click that join button right underneath the video. Thank you.